Critical Warning Number 6 – (Fake or Scam)

Every now and then I hear a commercial on the radio that piques my interest.  In this case it’s the radio add “Critical Warning 6″ which I end up listening to every morning on the way to work in July and August 2012.  In part, it goes:

Something very big will happen in America within the next 180 days. It will be more devastating than the credit crisis of 2008. For most people, it will hit them like a brick wall. It will touch Americans harder and deeper than anything else we've seen since the Great Depression. Michael Lombardi feels so strongly about this, he's decided to present his "Critical Warning Number Six" in a new video. In case you're not familiar with him... Michael Lombardi has been widely recognized as predicting five major economic events over the past 10 years. In 2002, he started advising his readers to buy gold– related investments when gold traded under $300 an ounce. In 2006, he begged his readers to get out of the housing market...before it plunged.

My thoughts, and please share your own on this issue below:

  1. Scare Tactic – The voice used for the advertising is a threatening male voice about to tell you something you don’t want to hear.
  2. Timing – “Within the next 180-days… ”  As of this writing if you poke around on like you can find mention of this ‘prediction’ going back to November of 2011 and possibly further back.
  3. Verification of Past Predictions – I tried to use the Internet Archive Wayback Machine to see what this website looked like in the past.  After all, if Mr. Lombardi has posted his past predictions online we should be able to see them.  Unfortunately, the Wayback Machine doesn’t seem to have an old web archives of his content.
  4. Who Else Made These Predictions? – I read a book prior to the present economic crisis by Harry S. Dent that seems to say the same thing Michael Lombardi is saying, but the information is verifiable.  A few differences.  The Wayback machine shows Dent ready to publish his book back in July of 2008.   Dent sells a newsletter that essentially draws parallels to the great depression 80-some-years ago.  It’s a good read and I’m a firm believer that history is a fine indicator of the future.  But as the immortal Samuel Clemen once said, “History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme”
  5. Why Share Your Knowledge? – If you lived in the future, let’s say the year 2022 and you traveled back to 2012 what would you do with your knowledge?  How would you leverage this knowledge? One way would be to setup a newsletter and charge $200/year sharing your knowledge with others.  The other would be to take your capital and make smart investments.  Then there is the third way; you could invest with your knowledge of the past and then share the knowledge as a newsletter.  If you invest first and have a large enough following you can make money as your followers invest and drive up prices.

I’ll probably come back to this and add as time allows.

About Jay Farschman - Jay currently works as a Senior Systems Administrator for an asset management company in Colorado where he works with companies that produce hardware, telecommunications software and financial services.  Jay previously owned a consulting company and provided training and consulting services for three Fortune 500 companies and numerous small businesses where he leveraged Linux to provided exceptional value.

73 thoughts on “Critical Warning Number 6 – (Fake or Scam)

  1. I’ve noticed that too. The commercial’s been saying this 180 days crap for months now. And try watching this so called ‘video’. You can’t pause or fast forward. This guy is a shyester and got rich off of peoples fears IMO.

    • I’m not sure I understand the marketing technique, where you watch a video which is really slideshow with a voice over. I find it very off putting, but I suppose the people who last until the end of the presentation are likely to go ahead and spend money.

      Shyster is a funny term. I’d say we are looking at someone who doesn’t have the same work ethic you or I have and want’s to make money by exploiting people.

        • It is a sales pitch, but it doesnt mean its not true. Our drunk uncle sam keeps borrowing trillions and saying this time he will do better. It will end ugly some how. And Glen Beck doesnt have a good work ethic? What a small comment from a small person. He outworks you daily. Thats how people in america succeed. Remember!

          • I like your “It will end ugly somehow” line. That’s really my whole problem. If, as an investor I hunker down and stop taking risk because eventually it will end ugly, then I’m betting that I can time the market based on my knowledge the the US government is going to fail.

            When? Tomorrow? 2017? 2032? 2093?

            In the meantime how will my investments do when my central thesis is to wait for calamity?

          • Hello, Mike!

            This infomercial that you’re defending is exactly the same rhetoric that Pena costal/evangelist brainwashers use to lure people into sects just before they commit mass suicide!

            That’s the same tactics that the communists used behind the iron curtain!

            You live in the USA! Grow a pair and start making your own decisions and own up to your own mistakes… Make your own decisions! Not many people in the world have his position!

      • Well, someone can make 1000 or more predictions, and if 5 of them come true, that doesn’t mean he should be given any credence for his past predictions. How many predictions did he make? How many of them were true, and how many did not pan out? What’s the real score?

        • I do agree to most of that , except the part of how many did he predict and how many have come true . I would see it as , how much effect does the ones that really worked had/have . My view is not about Lombardi at all , it’s about value , gains and losses .

    • I’m glad you guys are insightful and have researched this fear filled commercial. I’ve been listening to it for months, always saying to myself that I have to check it out. I didn’t because I knew down deep that its a sales pitch of some sort, but finally the fear got to me and here I am. I’m getting to be middle aged where losing any saved funds is quite threatening, particularly in light of last night’s VP debate. Thank you again for your research and comments.

    • Hope this is going to help everyone.
      Important thing to know is that in financial market and economic world there is no certainty, everything is a probability between 0.0001% and 99.9999% (you get my point). So allegation here is just the opinion of one guy, could be right could be wrong. Unfortunately for M. Lombardi, he gives all his punch, no need to purchase his package, he told you just everything. You can figure out what the ETF are if this is your dream to find out , but there is plenty of other way to have the exposure he suggested. If he really thinks economy will collapse within a year, god just buy calls on the vix it’s at historical low. NO ONE can call when the market will collapse ( I believe it will) except maybe possible scenario like this :
      Obama is about to announce the USA will default on all USA Fixed-Income product like. Then Obama know (any top 25 GDP countries will be good). Terrorist attack, natural disaster, etc.
      Yes there is fundamental problem in the USA and yes the USD COULD collapse, yes inflation COULD be a problem, yes the euro COULD collapse, yes gold COULD rise and yes stock market COULD drop.
      Yes I wrote COULD on each scenario because they are within my probability range (not 0% or 100%).
      Bankruptcy of the USA is not a new topic, capitalism system is itself a ponzi scheme. I believe it will end someday (maybe in 500 years, maybe in 10 anyway).
      While is comments are not scam (just opinion according to me, maybe he stole it from other people) maybe his website is a scam I have no idea, but no one need to read is damn newspaper anyway.
      One thing he seems to forget is this (this is my personnel opinion, might or might not happen) : USA is a to pround country to let this happen, think about it for a second. If you are dumb enough to believe to bankruptcy scenario you forget the fact that any countries in this planet can default, there is no law. If USA default, guess what UK will do, Germany will do, France will do (basically all other countries) just do the same, coutries will the most debt owned by their citizens will be crush the most but who care … foreign creditors are hurt (poor China). What happen next is geopolitical. Whoever got the army, got power. Mexico wanted to default back in 80’s USA managed them not to do so (they arranged something), Russian wanted to default in 98 , they did (USA considered too much risk to prevent that happening).
      So back to his points, if USA default, no inflation (say less), stock market crush maybe (probably a lot yes).
      Anyway , I fear more for my physical security rather than my financial security at that point.
      What could prevent all this. Economy grows. How? Jobs. New market must be created to let the system do what he does best and we are back to our financial indicator and stock picking!

      • As long as a good majority of people around the world / USA believe in the USA, then there will be no default. Yes, growth is the answer. We can probably grow our way out of any depression. See just the last 4 years growth, while the Republicans did not want to do any growing, anything that would help Obama.

  2. more than a year ago a VERY similiar radio message played for a website called endofamerica14.com. when i say similiar i mean identical. the dire radio message to grab your attention, the screen showing the words being spoken, the braggadocious psuedo psychic claims of predicting all these recent market trends, but we need not fear this terrible future because they have the answer, even the cadence of their of their voices are similiar.the one difference is porter stansberry was the voice on endofamerica14 (who is/was facing criminal charges of fraud) and now its m.lombardi. those on wall st who knew what was going to happen were selling mortgage backed securities to customers while at the same time betting against those securities( making obscene amounts of money for themselves and leading to AIG’s troubles) not putting out news letters warning of the danger ahead.a professor of economics at NYU, mr.roubini,AKA dr.doom very specifically predicted the collapse.this is well documented but you dont find him bragging about this fact. why? because hes not trying to sell you something.these scammers all use the same recipe. appeal to the fear people feel due to uncertainty but make them feel better by showing them what to do to not only avoid the pain of the oncoming trouble but make alot of money to boot. as far as using a timeline, in this case 18 months, it adds a sense of urgency. anybody who is a student of sales is familiar with the phrase “urgency brings out the larceny”. this being said, i personally think there is a storm brewing but would guarantee scammers such as these will be affected as much or more than the average joe.

  3. in addition if this guy had a newsletter that foresaw all of issues of the housing and credit crash there would have been story after story in the wall st journal new york times etc. etc. about this clairvoyant financial wizard and many people would already know of this man. not to mention having newspaper clippings to show that back up his claims of prediction would lend alot of credibility which in this case is terribly lacking.

  4. 8/18/2012 I first heard this commercial on what I thought to be a credible radio station. Actually, the video tape was very interesting and offered some good avenues to investigate. However, I’m glad I investigated the commercial not realizing that the commercial has been around since sometime last year! Wonder why KFI Radio would put this ad in their marketing list – guess money talks and this site must be making money to be able to pay to advertise on KFI 640 am. Thanks for the insight.

      • The idea that money talks is a dose of reality. Radio stations used to attempt to check out advertisers because their credibility was at stake. It”s a shame that a station like KFI would “take the buck” without question. However, SIRIUS RADIO and its sister XM, probably because they are the only game in town, showcase this same kind of scam and others as well, such as the ads for medications, i.e. fake Viagra through “Health Man.” Somebody will get hurt someday and then the FCC might make a move.

        • If you are listen to a commercial on Xm/Sirius rest ashare it is a scam because the rest are too. If your willing to pay $15 a month for radio you might be willing to buy other scams too.

  5. Regarding Harry Dent, he wrote a book and published it back in the late 90′s, right in the middle of the dot.com boom, where he was CERTAIN that Dow Jones was definitely going to hit 15,000\20,000 even 35,000. Honest truth. He was predicting a whole new paradigm, where the US and the industrialized world would be so much more productive, due to the digital revolution, that companies would expand into untapped markets, etc. He was basing it on demographic changes, blah blah blah. Well, we all know how that ended, and I never noticed the Dow hitting 35,000. True, the Dow is now around 13,000 but adjusted for inflation since 1999, it’s probably closed to 8,000 or 9,000. Maybe. Anyway, after that, I never trusted or believed a word that guy said.

    • David,

      I know of the book. I thought the title was something like DOW 40,000. And no, I don’t trust Mr. Dent, but I do think he at least did put things in writing while hedging his bets. It’s either the Great Depression Ahead, or DOW 40,000. Either way when the dust settles he looks prophetic.

      • It’s called cognitive reinforcement. The people buying into these scams WANT to believe what he has to say (and yes, I called it a scam). So the listeners tend to focus on the things that reinforce their belief and discard/discredit those facts that do not.

        These guys make dozens upon dozens of “predictions” and they do so on a consistent and continual basis. Statistics tells us that dumb luck will eventually shine upon them and they’ll get a prediction correct. Of course, henceforth, you only hear about their “accuracte” prediction. They fail to mention all the times they were absurdly incorrect. Even if the Country does meet disaster “in the next 180 days” (when did we start that clock, again?), that doesn’t make Mr. Lombardi a financial genius. It just makes him a lucky guesser.

  6. I was just reading the material it sounded frightening. I was interested but I have little savings and cannot afford to lose it

  7. I read the various comments. Scan, advertisement, or bs…..probably all of the above.

    However, I fully believe most of his points. I think we are headed down the path he refers to and I like the ideas of investing in gold, inflation hedge ETFs and…. I am not quite sure how to act on those but I am going to investigate the strategies and try to move in that direction. I fully agree with his statements even if it is a scan. I believed his points before I watched his presentation and I still believe them.

    I would like for people to comment on whether you agree with his prediction ??? None of us have a crystal ball, but the ingredients are there for the storm he mentions.

    • Danny,

      Sure, there are things we are doing to bankrupt the country and a number of other things that point to some failure in the future, but and this is a rather important and big butt. BUT, timing these things isn’t going to be easy and if you put down cash betting against the USA you may have a long wait and you are liable to miss out on a few good decades of boom time.

      I think it’s all about timeframe.

    • How could one disagree? It is obvious our country is in decline. We have debased our currency and our national morality. We have spread our resources (especially our military) far, wide and too thin. Our world reserve currency status is at risk as we are totally out of control in that we cannot confine our spending to match, or be less than, what income we take in. It is true, events might happen faster in our digital world, but even so, Rome was in decline several hundred years before the end.

  8. The timing is rather impossible to predict. But, it is almost like a hurricane ….you see it coming. I feel like the various signals are indicating a very rough period ahead. Federal debt, Europe crisis, Feb gov gridlock which is hard to get real needed fiscal responsibility, Obamacare, housing, unemployment, …..

    It seems things are bad and set to get worse. Again, agree the video is trying to scare you…..but it does make sense to me.

  9. I see it the same way the writer of this blogs column see’s it. and I remember hearing the same story about a years ago or more.
    Another reason this may be going on is to get people to panic and pull their money from their investments and the banks. Certain extremely wealthy men purposely instigating the situation and monitoring the results to quickly move billions of their own dollars in unison with billions of dollars by panicked private investors and instigating a problem. This intern leading to a large scale crash. All political aimed directly at the Obama administration for the benefit of special interest.

    • Well, I don’t see this as an orchestrated attack on the Obama administration. It seems silly to attempt to instigate the downfall of our economy to take a jab at the executive branch.

      Maybe just holding an election is a better idea.

  10. if Don hand me down trump the failed beauty pageant director predicts anything it needs to be taken with a grain of salt just like news-max.
    The republicans sometimes get illiteracy mixed up with intelligence.

  11. . We’re definitely heading in the wrong direction. So it’s definitely a money maker for him but it doesn’t change the facts. I wouldn’t buy his newsleter but I have been preparing for the worst .

  12. You don’t have to watch and listen to those videos – just try to close the page and when you get the choice of Say on Page or Leave Page, pick Stay on Page and the text comes up and you can scroll through. It must be for deaf people.

  13. I have been following the market my entire life some of the points he brings up could very well happen. I agree with most but not all. Making money in the market is all about timing, knowing not only when to get in but when to get out. To make money you have to constantly be looking for bubbles, ride them up and get lucky and ride them back down. My best advise, buy when most are selling, and sell when most are buying.

  14. By accepting this offer, for your convenience, you authorize us to renew your subscription annually at the regular annual rate in advance so there is no interruption in service
    you authorize us to renew your subscription annually at the regular annual rate in advance??? This is usually not a good sign!!!!

  15. After u click the link to his video-commercial, when it first begins, u can click to close the window, & the format changes to written text. I prefer that format b/c it allows me to read & re-read & go back to review. My learning style is such that I remember more of what I read, than what I hear.

    BTW: Don’t count on getting your $$ back guarantee, as I learned the hard way. They will refund your purchase but charge your credit card for the full retail value of all the special reports, which is much more. Buyer beware.

  16. Getting a subscription to Critical Warning Number 6 is definitely worth it. With your annual subscription you get 12 monthly issues of Lombardi’s Crisis Profit Alert newsletter, 12 separate monthly e-alerts, and Michael’s private daily investment e-letter.

    You also get 5 special research reports. As for his stock picks…his win rate this year is a whopping 100%. I think it’s the best stock newsletter out there for contrarians. Hope this helps.

    • Sort of wondered when I’d get a favorable review of the newsletter. Everything else here is buyer beware and skepticism relating to the hyperbole surrounding this advertisement.

      One thing I do know is that healthy markets require buyers and sellers, bulls and bears. It even requires contrarians.

      • Jay, almost by defininition that is no “review.” I’d say MB’s comments are an advertisement. Also, they are VERBATIM the words provided by someone else on 10-22-12 on another blog. Coincidence?

        • Steven,

          I saw that too. It does look like someone doing damage control. If I were doing damage control I’d make myself look like a someone’s grandmother rather than using the word “Whopping” in the comment line Mike Bentall…. and BTW: those initials MB, seem somehow familiar.

    • I agree. I am very happy with most of the newsletters offered by the Stansberry’s Investment group and find their customer service area excellent. Some of their newsletters were inappropriate for me (as I have no need for gold or other asset storage overseas) and they promptly refunded all of my money. What makes it a SCAM? I bought a subscription to a newsletter and I receive a newsletter, eMails, etc. every month. I am receiving what I purchased, so where is the SCAM?

    • People questioned if you are a shill for Lombardi, etc.?
      All of these comments are already quite! And still the bull market plows on with a few halts.
      Q. what are some strategies that he offerred that actually made you money= names of stocks, etf’s, etc that he recommended in the past 12 months, during 2013?
      Beyond all the theory & hype, what are his recent recommendations?
      Today is 2-9-2014. THANKS.

  17. You mentioned the Wayback Machine and the credibility of author Harry S. Dent . But, please not Dent wrote a book titled “The roaring 2000′s” in the late 90′s. In this book Dent was predicting, among other things, a booming stock market. The next ten years were of course, anything but. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

    • Drew,

      H. Dent certainly saw things two distinctly different ways, and I mentioned him for a reason. If you read the recent Dent book you’ll find some pretty good insights and predictions… but that doesn’t mean I would follow any of his advice any mroe that I would follow “Critical Warning Number 6″

      But good point.

  18. Anyone can look at the past and claim to have predicted it all, and then try to sell you their advice at a supposed reduced rate with an automatic renewal at current full price rates both of which are ridiculously overpriced.
    If no one has yet to be able to verify this guy’s claims of actually predicting anything, then any sensible child should be able to see through the BS and declare SCAM.
    So then, what if you actually bought his newsletter anyway? Then you would have to decide if you want to bet your fortune on his advice.
    You probably have a better chance at winning in Las Vegas.
    Just my 2 cents worth,

  19. What burns me is that these ads cost a LOT of money and are played on what I thought were respectful, legitimate radio shows. They have an affect on people though. A guy I work with believes all the conspiracy theory tapes on the World Trade Center attacks and all these endofamerica tapes and the new critical warnings.
    Show me where all these “predictions” were made. My brother and I both knew in 2006 that the housing market was way over-bloated and over priced and knew there had to be a correction…and we are not economists or bankers.
    PT Barnum is right…. A sucker is born every minute.

  20. I spent the last 20 minutes trying to sift through google, bing and yahoo results to actually land on a website that provides accurate reviews- yours. It seem the proprietor of critical warning has also busied himself with domain and search engine results to prevent the savvy from landing on credible reviews. If BusinessWeek or Forbes or Barons does not produce search results, other than a press release….something is awry. Generally I conclude that Sirius advertisers are not.

  21. Before you folks jump to conclusions, I heard the Critical Warning ad on Sirius radio in my car. I went to their website and ordered a subscription. This was about 6 months ago. I must tell you that I have received nothing but excellent advice. I get an email every month from Lombardi Publishing and its the most valuable piece of advice I get in making my quarterly portfolio decisions. This product is not meant for everyone. This is only meant for active investors who are looking for investment advice. Michael Lombardi has been a veteran in giving advice. His company is 26 years old. What you folks have written above is horse crap. If this was utter BS, he would have vanished long time ago. My 2 cents.

  22. The reason the Internet Wayback Machine shows no archives for these genius predictors, is they are clever enough to continually change their domain name every few months, like:

    americaisdoomed.com
    criticalwarning6.com
    blahblahblah.com

  23. You do not have to sit and listen to the whole message
    of CriticalWarning6.com

    Here’s a tip to use on any of these type sites to see the whole printed
    message at once. Close your browser and when the box comes up
    click “stay on page”. You will then see the entire messge in print form
    and decide quickly that it is a scam without having to sit and listen forever.

    Thank me later…just pass on this tip where ever you can to save folks
    a lot of time listening……. :-)

  24. Ahhhh… The coming Doom….. A hand full of families control the money supply. They have enough but will not be satisfied until they have it all. As long as our government continues to let a private corporation print the US dollar then loan it to us at interest, America will never recover. If the US Gov had the balls to control its own money supply and print it too wow think of the savings in interest alone that would more than cover obama care food stamps etc. Until then we will continue to have people with home made crystal balls selling us predictions of the financial future of America. Some of this is located in a video Called THE SECRET OF OZ free on utube

  25. Thanks! That works great! Saves $ for those thinking of giving in to it, and as you say, you can read for yourself, without having to listen to the slow monotonous pace of the website trying to lure people in. This is a great tool can be used on any website that beg you “stay on this page”…

    • Thanks for the credibility piece…. but I have to say you actually googled and ended up on my page so I may have to categorize you among the mentally challenged as well.

    • MAYBE. But I am guessing you never followed any of “that advise” to us morons? This means, that my net worth, which started from ZERO, must be less than your net worth. Would you like to make a bet?

  26. Pingback: What Are Scams by Profits Confidential | Stock Market Oasis News

  27. Think about it. If the U.S. dollar really is getting worthless like this guy says, Why is he asking for more U.S. dollar to buy this info??? ;)

  28. I notice a lot of talk about this being a scam and some people mentioning that they agree the financial plight of the United States is not good. I don’t see anyone saying the opposite is true. Not one person saying the national debt is okay, the rate of spending is okay, unemployment (or under-employment) is okay (or even argue that it is being reported accurately). Not one intellectual saying the Fed intervention and money supply expansion, near-zero interest rates are normal AND indefinite. Or that the USD is okay, Europe is fine, corporate earnings and massive share buy-backs are “normal”. Not one person arguing that we are heading for a period of DEflation, and it’s business as usual. No one offering a suggestion or hint that a crisis can be averted.

    Why is there not one person arguing even ONE of these points?

    Of course this means everyone loosely agrees with the thesis, and it boils down to TIMING or “WHEN”. It doesn’t take an MBA to guess its going to be sooner rather than later.

  29. He first started making his critical warning number six on 11/17/2011. Eighteen months after that date is 5/17/2013. So if the market doesn’t crash in the next 12 days he will be wrong. The Dow on 11/17/2011 was around 11,000.
    today the Dow is near 15,000.
    If you would have followed any of his 5 perdictions in 2011 you would have lost your shirt in the last 17 months, but he still has until 5/17/2013 for his 18 month prediction to come true.

  30. Well, I was suckered in. I took a few of MLombardi’s picks and bought SQQQ for example, the “short the market” recommendation at 30. Its at 16. Apple and the dow are up 10-15% since his “recommendation” but he’s not showing results of SQQQ in any of the current newsletters – its just more of the inflation is coming, $ dropping, rates will go up, stocks will therefore drop, so buy SQQQ, GLD and …

    But his timing is terribly bad, or like others have posted, he’ll be right sometime after I turn 120.

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